Weekly Signals - Oct 31, 2023
Forward Looking Edition
Three Articles
Go-Forward Thoughts From Former Israeli Military Intelligence Chief - Politico
Try to ignore the headline in the link; it’s actually a wide-ranging interview with the former head of Aman, the military intelligence directorate within the IDF (Israel Defense Force). But don’t totally ignore the headline - he puts the blame largely on Netanyahu for the security failures. Apparently, so do a lot of Israelis.
The Techno-Optimist Manifesto - a16z
The first of two articles suggested to me and some friends by Jack Selby, of Thiel Capital. It’s at the far end of the optimism spectrum on the economy, and written by the eminent grise of Silicon Valley, Marc Andreessen. If you want a sense of how VCs are making sense of these economic doldrums, and how they see opportunities, this is the logical place to start.
Sea Change - Howard Marks
This is the other end of the economic outlook spectrum that Jack recommended to read. Marks co-chairs the well respected OakTree Capital Management, which has roughly $163B AUM. He’s been through a couple of cycles, and is circumspect in his thinking. He has since written Further Thoughts On Sea Change, but the main article is where I would start. His posture is decidedly less optimistic about economic growth in the coming years. It’s worth reading both articles, and coming to your own conclusions.
Bonus:
You might be surprised to hear from the eldest child of the founder of Hamas, Sheikh Hassan Yousef.
Bonus perspective:
The Gaza Strip, overlayed onto LA County.
One Question (and Background)
2MM people live in the Gaza Strip. From 2014 to 2020, U.N. agencies spent nearly $4.5 billion in Gaza, including $600 million in 2020 alone. According to the OECD, aid to Palestinians totaled over $40 billion between 1994 and 2020. Roughly $6B since 2005.
Within this timeframe, Israel left Gaza in 2005, and it subsequently been under the jurisdiction of PLO, then the PA, then Hamas. Where did all the money go?
One Person To Get To Know
My buddy Chris Powers is one of the most fascinating people I know. He runs Fort Capital, based out of Ft Worth, naturally, but also hosts The Fort Podcast, which has quickly become national in its popularity and reach. Genuinely kind and sincere, he’s one of the good ones.